Due to some of the hype around everyone-knows-which airline and the growing fears of gossips and other sufferers, I decided to write this post in defense of “airplanes” and aviation as such.
Here I will try to answer some, as it seems to me, questions that often pop up on Gossip and speak out on aircraft safety as such.
Opinion: “This is terrible, in Russian aviation there are so many buckets of bolts that miraculously take off and miraculously land - every time, like Russian roulette.”
Answer: this is both true and untrue. This is no longer true, it seems to me. Everywhere - in any country, in any airline, there will be aircraft in which something is not done/repaired 100% perfectly. An aircraft is a complex system that requires constant repair and maintenance; it is simply impossible to eliminate absolutely all errors and prevent all defects. But this does not make airplanes - neither here nor anywhere else - a bucket of bolts. The design of the aircraft is based on the principle of MINIMALIZING damage to other parts of the structure in the event of a malfunction of any one. Roughly speaking, if one thing breaks, (with very rare exceptions) there is always the opportunity to land the plane safely.
Also, it is worth considering that any plane crash greatly affects the image of the company and even the country, so no one will let a “bucket of bolts” fly.
A little detail: an old plane is not necessarily bad; a slight shake on the plane or, for example, a go-around is not a reason to panic. You don't burst into tears if you're shaking a little in the car, do you? These are just features of the road. The same is true for an airplane - these are simply the features of the air corridor provided for by the design of the airplane and the preparedness of the pilot.
For clarity, we can take as a criterion how many flight hours, on average, a particular model had a crash. The crashed A321 aircraft was from the Airbus A320 family - according to samolety.org, it corresponds to a result of 1 accident per 14 050 200 flight hours (and this is far from the worst result). The crashed plane had a total operating time 55 772 flight hours. For comparison, the Boeing 737 JT8D was named the most dangerous, with one crash per 507,500 flight hours.
Conclusion: A plane crash is always an exceptional case caused by many factors. It is impossible to say that the entire fleet of aircraft of a company/airport/country is bad and that flying with them is dangerous. Defects can be identified (almost) everywhere; a malfunction in itself cannot lead to a disaster, it can only lead coincidence .
How likely is this “coincidence of circumstances”? Let's move on to the next question -
Opinion: “Airplanes are not the safest form of transport?”
Answer: I think a picture will be indicative:
The picture shows the relative safety of different types of transport, compared per unit distance traveled. Statistics are a stubborn thing.
Opinion: “Of course, it was a bomb. Can the engine really explode all of a sudden?”
Answer: maybe there was an explosion, maybe not. Theoretically, it’s not just an explosion that can cause an airplane to break up. Once again, a plane crash is always Very complex investigation.
Could the engine theoretically explode - it could. The engine may, for example, catch fire - and then you should turn it off completely. History knows of safe landings when both one and two engines are turned off (for example, the Boeing 737 accident in New Orleans - the plane landed without the thrust of both engines). And, for example, in 2010, even with an engine explosion, the plane landed safely (see Incident with Airbus A380 over Batam Island).
In a tense situation in society, it is natural that people easily see disasters as acts of terrorism, but this is not necessarily the case. When an American Airlines airliner crashed into the New York suburb of Queens two months after 9/11, everyone thought it was a terrorist attack until the opposite was proven - turbulence and pilot error were to blame.
Now let's move on to the main thing - Why do planes still fall and what has been done for our safety?
The most common cause of plane crashes is human error.
According to statistics, the reasons are distributed as follows:
Pilot errors - 50%:
unprovoked pilot errors - 29%,
pilot errors caused by difficult weather conditions - 16%,
pilot errors caused by equipment failures - 5%.
Aircraft failures - 22%.
Errors of ground personnel (air traffic controllers, aircraft technicians, etc.) - 7%.
Other reasons - 1%.
The most dangerous part of the flight is takeoff and landing due to the low flight altitude and, as a result, lack of time to assess the problem and solve it.
The graph below shows the number of registered aviation incidents depending on the year. As you can see, the curve is going down. The following is copy-paste from one site:
Every second there are from 4,000 to 10,000 aircraft in the air! There are tens of thousands of flights every day. More than 5 billion people fly on airplanes every year, that is, figuratively, the entire population of the Earth. The total number of victims of plane crashes is 300-400 people. ALONE does not return from the flight! out of 12 million people. That is, in Moscow, relatively speaking, one person dies per year!
But the capital loses about 30 thousand people annually in various road accidents, i.e. 30,000 times more. It's much more dangerous to take a bus; you're not afraid of buses, right? If a passenger boarded a random flight every day, it would take him 21,000 years to get into an accident.
My short commentary on possible flight hazards and preventative protection measures: as you can see, the main reason is pilot error. And in this area, a lot has been done to date - in addition to serious preparation, a lot of training on computer models, stress resistance tests, an autopilot has been introduced everywhere - this means that the autopilot is largely responsible for the flight, which is not frightened or distracted, but pilots the plane accurately in accordance with the data received from the devices. (from the shaking often mentioned by gossips, for example, it will bring it out). If necessary, the autopilot can be turned off - in case of dangerous situations, pilots always have a “hazard instruction” with them, which clearly states what to do and how to get the plane out of danger.
Needless to say, even the hierarchy of pilots and their “freedom of action” are also strictly regulated?
Failures of aircraft - as the world develops, breakdowns occur less and less often and even the worst hypothetical situations are better provided for. For example, if an airplane loses key altitude sensors for flight, in today's globalized world it is possible to quickly send a rescue plane to guide the "lost" airplane to the airport.
The weather conditions are not bad here either. Now we are able to detect even such “little things” as micro-eddies and flocks of birds.
Terrorism - terrorist acts in the air in the entire history of aviation are unlikely to count more than a couple of dozen. It's always terrible when it does happen, but it's not a common occurrence to be afraid of.
Controller errors - most likely a relic of the past - were almost always caused by poor technique, and in a couple of cases by overwork. The technology today is obviously much better and more accurate, and to prevent the second case, the rules for monitoring aircraft as such have been largely revised - so that the load on the controller is reduced, and his actions are checked during the time.
Generally, I would like to wish us all a smooth flight, without disasters or incidents. Those who died will forever remain in the memory of people; any disaster is, of course, a huge loss and too great a price for us to learn something else and review something else.
And finally, a few more facts about airplanes from the website (samolety.org):
The plane stays in the air as confidently as any car on the road, and the ship at sea.
On an airplane, absolutely all systems are duplicated, and some even have 2-3 spare duplicates: often on an airplane 4 brake systems, 3 landing gear systems, 3 fuel systems, 3 fire protection systems, 3 control systems, etc.
On a passenger plane, at least two engines. Failure of all engines at once is negligible. For example, on average, a single engine failure occurs every 2 million flight hours, which is 228 years of continuous operation!
According to the existing requirements for passenger aircraft, the aircraft, if one of the engines fails, must retain the ability to fly without reduction (at normal flight weight and in normal weather conditions) and safely make a normal landing.
For example, on the popular Boeing 737, the scheduled time for an emergency flight on one engine is 2 hours.
The engine is one of the most expensive parts of an aircraft. His price about 10 million dollars, so they are very carefully monitored and looked after.
Each plane crash has its own cause, and often not just one, but a combination of circumstances. Each such case is carefully studied and measures are taken to ensure that it does not happen again.
Every year, total passenger traffic increases by 10%, and the number of accidents decreases by 15%.
When choosing how to get from point A to point B, we take into account 2 factors - speed and safety. Long trips narrow the choice of vehicle. Today we will discuss the degree of danger of popular modes of transport.
Public opinion
“What is the safest transport?” – this was the question asked by VTsIOM sociologists. Monitoring was carried out for 3 years. Throughout this time, the opinion of Russians has remained virtually unchanged. Considered safe:
- Metro – 69%;
- bus and tram – 68%;
- trains – 51%;
- cars -48%;
- trolleybus – 40%;
- ferries – 38%.
It is interesting to see how people's attitudes towards air travel have changed. In 2011, only 22% of respondents named the plane as the safest mode of transport. The following year the number increased to 33%, and in 2013 it fell to 16%.
The director of the center, V. Fedorov, notes that information influences the indicators. Major plane crashes in 2013 caused a decline in citizens' trust in aircraft.
Statistics
Official data differs from the position of ordinary Russians. First, let's find out how the mortality rate is determined on different means of transportation.
There are several methods. The most accurate and widespread calculation is the number of deaths per 100 million km or 160 million miles.
Each transport group contains the safest types of cars, motorcycles, etc. But the average version “as a whole” is taken. American statistical bureau DERT in 2000. This is how the overall mortality rate was calculated:
- Airplanes – 0.5;
- buses – 0.4;
- trains – 0.6;
- minibuses – 1.2;
- water transport – 2.6;
- cars – 3.1;
- bicycles – 44.6;
- on foot – 54.2;
- motorcycle - 108.9.
Based on the flight coefficient of 0.5, a person needs to fly 200 million km before (according to statistics!) an accident occurs. According to statistics, the safest mode of transport is an airplane. It is followed by rail and water transport. In order not to be unfounded, I will take the latest reports as a basis.
Aviation-safety.net has been tracking aviation accidents since 1996. From June 1 to November 1, 2017, 117 aircraft crashed or made an emergency landing around the world, killing 279 people.
In the first five months of this year, in Russia alone, 5,770 people died as a result of road accidents and another 71,461 were injured. Even the safest cars are unable to reduce this number.
According to regnum.ru, over 5 months, trains had the worst results: 41 people died, 172 were injured.
Airplanes take off every 3 seconds. Therefore, the figures are quite comparable and give a general idea of the number of victims over the same period of time. Every year, about 1,000 people die from air transport crashes, and up to two thousand by rail.
Aviation
A car cannot be called the safest means of transportation. In addition, the idea that it is impossible to survive a plane crash is also wrong. If you look at the incident registration resource table, you can see that in most cases there were no casualties. For every 500 disasters in the United States over 20 years, there were 5% of fatalities.
If we take only major crashes from the total, the mortality rate will be about 50%.
In 2007, Popular Mechanics magazine named the safest seats on an airplane. Journalists analyzed data from the US National Security Council for 30 years. They drew attention to the dependence of the number of victims on location.
The number of aircraft survivors as a result of accidents, depending on the landing site Almost 70% of the survivors remain in the section beyond the edge of the aircraft's wing. 56% of those sitting above the wing survive. The main impact of a collision with the ground falls on the nose of the liner, so the tail is relatively safe.
There are also statistics on the safest planes. Here are the top five:
- Airbus A340 - 341 aircraft of this type were produced over 24 years. Over 13.5 million flight hours, 5 accidents were recorded and not a single casualty was reported;
- Airbus A330 – 577 copies. 1 incident per 14 million flight hours. A total of 8 units lost, 346 deaths;
- Boeing 747 – 1 accident in 17.5 million flights. There are 941 ships in operation, 51 were lost as a result of accidents, 3,732 people died.
- Boeing 737 NG – since 1997 3 tragedies occurred (1/17 million hours).
Interesting fact: The Boeing 747 is officially certified to fly without 1 engine (out of 4). Those. in case of failure, he can safely continue the flight to his destination, without emergency landings.
The Boeing 777 is considered the safest aircraft in the world. The total flight time of 748 aircraft since 1995 has amounted to more than 20 million hours. 3 people died in two incidents. One ship has been lost in its entire history. It is important to understand that the rating is compiled without taking into account military operations and terrorist attacks.
Motor transport
Oddly enough, the car we are used to is one of the most dangerous means of transportation, second only to motorcycles. Let's think about our safety in the car. The resource testauto.ru publishes data from the largest companies conducting crash tests. Based on this rating, we will determine the safest cars.
In the general rating column, Volkswagen Passat, Volvo XC-90, Toyota RAV-4, Toyota Prius, Mercedes E-class and C-class, Lexus GS, Jeep Grand Cherokee receive “excellent”.
Such popular brands as BMV 3 Series, Dodge Caliber, Honda Accord VI, Honda Civic Hathback V, Honda CR-V, Volvo S-70 and S-80 and a number of other cars passed the “good” test.
The main criteria for grading are frontal and side impacts, rollovers, and child safety. You can familiarize yourself with other grades in detail on the specified website, but we have listed all the excellent students. The source calls the Volvo XC90 the safest car in the world with reference to EuroNCAP specialists. The device scored the maximum number of stars.
Interestingly, the rating system of some crash tests includes a “pedestrian” rating. Unfortunately, if you look at the table it becomes clear: these road users are practically not protected by anything. Be careful on the roads!
Safe seats in the cabin
Automobile
Do you know what is the safest place in a car? Most people are convinced that it is behind the driver's seat. If a vehicle is hit on the side, the driver and the passenger sitting behind will have equal chances of survival.
The center of the vehicle is least susceptible to damage in an accident. That's why The middle between the two rear seats is considered the safest place in the car.
Public transport
It is least dangerous to occupy central places of public transport. The logic is similar: the greatest probability of collision with cars moving on the left. Accordingly, passengers sitting by the window will be under attack.
It is also not recommended to sit in the back four rows. In the first seats, it is better to sit behind the driver's seat, especially if the seats are located with their backs in the direction of travel. The middle of the cabin remains the safest place on the bus.
Other payment options
This article discusses one option for calculating safety, from the point of view of passenger kilometers. The question can be resolved based on the number of deaths per billion hours. Then, buses will come out in first place, and planes will come down to third. If we take a billion trips as a basis, trains will become the leader, air travel will take seventh place.
All methods have advantages and disadvantages. Statisticians use various algorithms. It’s enough for us to know: it’s safer to travel over short distances by land, and over long distances – by air. Well, the safest transport is a spaceship. He is beyond competition in any case. In the entire history of space exploration, 18 people have died.
We introduced you to transport safety calculation systems and introduced you to the course of sociological surveys. Now, the floor is yours. Which means of transportation is preferable for you? We are waiting for your comments!
Business Insider set out to prove this thesis. Its journalists, using scientific data and statistics, claim that the chances of dying while in a car or while walking on the street are many times higher.Last year, MIT professors found that the global average risk of death for a commercial airline passenger is one in 45 million flights. Statistics say that on average, a traveler can spend 123 thousand years on an airplane without crashing.
The publication provides a list of 10 facts that should convincingly prove that an airplane is the safest mode of transport available today.
1. Bicycle. For cyclists, the odds of being involved in an accident and dying are one in 4,982 trips. These figures are provided by the US National Safety Council.
2. Motorcycle. In the United States, there is one accident involving motorcyclists for every 1,907 trips they take.
3. The odds of being seriously injured while walking on the streets are one in 1,749.
4. If you are a passenger in a car right now (in the US), your chances of getting into an accident are approximately one in 415.
5. Government experts in the US say that private jet flyers are much more likely to get into trouble than those who fly commercial airlines. In the first case, the risk of getting into an accident is one in 7229.
6. Analysts from the PolitiFact organization studied the statistics of accidents involving buses and came to the conclusion that this is the most dangerous land mode of transport. There is nothing to compare with flight safety, experts say.
7. Statistics say that for every 100 million airline miles a typical passenger flies, there are only 0.003 fatalities. For comparison: in the case of commercial buses, this figure is 0.05, that is, approximately 17 times higher.
If you are planning a trip and want to find out what is the safest mode of transport, the statistics will speak for themselves. Many people are afraid to fly by plane and try to choose a car when traveling. But still, let's look back at the world statistics:What is the safest mode of transport in the world?
10th place. Motorcycle (moped scooter)
125 deaths per 1.5 billion km.9th place. Bike
35 deaths per 1.5 billion km.8th place. Metro
25 deaths per 1.5 billion km.7th place. Water passenger transport (ship, yacht, steamship, etc.)
20 deaths per 1.5 billion km.6th place. Spaceship. (don't ask how he got into this statistic)
At 1.5 billion km. accounts for 7 deaths.5th place. Minibuses.
5 deaths per 1.5 billion km.4th place. Automobile
4 deaths per 1.5 billion km.3rd place. Bus
One human life per 1.5 billion km.2nd place. Train
0.2 deaths per 1500000000 km. ways.1 place. Airplane
The probability of dying is 1:8000000.The safest mode of transport statistics in Russia
In Russia the rating is somewhat different. Rail transport is considered the first place in terms of safety in Russia, and airplanes are in second. Third place goes to passenger cars.Why is an airplane the safest form of transport?
Every day we read in the newspapers about accidents on the roads. Most often, the drivers themselves are to blame for this. It's sad, but we don't think about the total number of victims. After all, in a plane crash, 200, 300, 400 people die immediately, and in a car accident, 2-3 people die.But if you find out that about 100 people die on the roads in Russia every day? Daily! How often do plane crashes happen?
It seems to us that passengers have no chance of survival in a plane crash. But this is not entirely true. Not all aircraft failures and pilot errors result in the death of passengers. History is full of miraculous rescues in plane crashes, as well as stupid deaths on the road.
Reading time: 7 min.
Every day, from the news feed, millions of people learn about car accidents, derailed trains, crashed planes and other accidents that result in a large number of deaths. The question arises, how to protect yourself from troubles and what type of transport is the safest? In order not to indulge in fear, we present to your attention a list of the safest transport in the world, according to this year’s statistical reports.
This type of transport is rightfully considered the most dangerous in the world. Statistics confirm this - 125 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers. Anyone who prefers this type of vehicle seriously exposes themselves to danger, and very consciously. Motorcyclists make up only 1% of the total traffic on the highway, but a fifth of all accidents involve this type of transport. Motorists gave motorcyclists the nickname “crunchies” for a reason. The reason for this was a very low percentage of passive safety, enormous acceleration, enormous speed and psychological aspects: love of extreme sports and adrenaline rushes in the body. Motorcyclists often find themselves in the blind spot of cars because they are so small.
According to statistical reports, for every 1.5 billion kilometers there are 35 deaths. This is the most environmentally friendly transport, but at the same time one of the most unsafe. But, in truth, car drivers are more to blame for road accidents than cyclists themselves. It often happens that the car has only a few scratches, but the cyclist and his vehicle are between life and death.
Statistics in this case give figures of 25 dead people per 1.5 billion kilometers. The most dangerous incidents that happen in the metro are fires, crushes, and train collisions. A large number of people in a small closed space - panic and a huge percentage of casualties. In the Russian Federation, the leader in such incidents is the Moscow Metro.
Traveling by water has always been a very risky undertaking. Of course, over many centuries of technological development, water transport has now become much safer, but nevertheless, for every 1.5 billion kilometers there are 20 deaths. Although the main cause of death remains not collisions with other ships, but passengers falling overboard.
Statistics here give the following figures: 7 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers. The danger of flying in outer space is in no way comparable to that on earth - traveling in space is 17 times safer than riding a motorcycle. During all the time of travel in Space, only three devices did not return to Earth (the only thing that has a negative impact on statistical reports is explosions during take-offs of spacecraft).
Minibus travel involves 5 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers. This is one of the most popular modes of transport among the population. To protect yourself in a minibus, it is best to take a seat in the middle. The size of the car, stable grip and passive safety will all play a role here. Unfortunately, the main cause of accidents remains the low level of driver qualifications.
Here statisticians give the following figures: 4 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers. The development of technology has also affected cars; now passive and active safety is at a completely different level. Unfortunately, motorists are the most dependent on other road users. You can be the most skillful and careful driver in the world, but this still won’t protect you from the fact that someone could crash into you and end up in the hospital, or worse.
Buses are in third place in the ranking; statistics show one fatality per 1.5 billion kilometers. If you want to travel safely, then this transport is for you. Sometimes it turns out that the bus route covers more than one thousand kilometers (for example, in Australia, a bus traveling on the Perth-Brisbane route travels 5,455 kilometers). But it is still quite safe to travel by bus.
The train is one of the safest modes of transport. Just think about it - only 0.2 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers of road. The railways in America and Europe are the safest in the world. In Russia, things are a little worse - 0.7 deaths on the same piece of road. If you calculate the probability of death on a train, it will be 1 in 431800 degrees (approximately 0.0002%). Investopedia reports that you are 1,000 times more likely to die in a car accident than in a train accident.
Paradoxically for many, airplanes are the safest transport in the world. The probability that you will die while flying on an airplane is 1: 8,000,000. The problem is that although airplanes crash very rarely, they always cause a large number of victims. Therefore, the media always covers such incidents and psychologically people begin to fear airplane travel. There are 0.5 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers. The Flight Safety Agency states that there is a 1 in 8 million chance of dying in a car accident. And self-destructive individuals need to take a ticket every day on a random flight for 21 thousand years in order to accomplish their plans.
